Quick Weekend market thoughts (I need a break from the screens):
* Let’s plan on having GDP, jobless claims data, and three of the largest stocks report on the same day! Oh, that happened. And we survived!
* The market has had every possible setup to easily dump hard, but key levels are holding and that is all that matters.
* The market needed exceptional earnings and we got them! Today, Friday, was the real test as to whether the day could hold gains. It was horrible early on, and I gave a fair warning that end of month and weak hands would sell at the open, but we rebounded into close.
* Ultimately, breadth was not great for the market, but stimulus hopes has me keeping positions on; Meaning a few big names moved the indexes. Let’s see if some beaten down names get a boost on any stimulus.
* The reality is, there are warning signs! With that said, technicals are hanging in there and key levels have held across the major indexes (including Small-Caps at the 200-DMA).
* This remains a “sell into strength and buy the dip environment”. It won’t last forever, but for now the trend is up despite what the news and headlines depict.
* We have about 45% invested and I feel good about that given the risk to reward. It was a positive week for clients despite the massive data week that could have easily plunged.
* Yes, I see the put/call ratio as a warning sign, and “no” this rally won’t last forever, but until we breakdown, ride the trend. I have my stops at key levels and have no problem selling should we break support.
* S&P 500 held key levels at $3200, $3217, and $3233. Resistance is close at $3280. Next levels $3310 & $3360.
* A second wave in death count would be a serious problem, but we aren’t seeing that occur at this time and I hope it doesn’t happen. * If the beaten down names give tech a break we can continue rotating back and forward and move higher to the upside. Just know it doesn’t take much for a big plunge with the warning signals present.
* Protecting capital is a part of wealth management that we take seriously. For now, key levels have held and we remain bullish in our positioning. The positions within the 45% invested are definitely a “risk-on” trade. If we plunge, we don’t get killed.
* We are watching closely! I’m going to sleep and will wake up Monday morning refreshed. Hahaha. Enjoy your weekend!